If you asked me right now what our chances of winning the title are I'd say "slightly better than they were at the same time last season"….which translates as "not very good, really".
But, but, but….they are slightly better than they were at the same point last season. This time last year we'd had a start marred by draws and defeats, but the difference was that we had a relatively easy start to the campaign. By the final whistle in the 9th game of 05-06. we'd amassed 13 points, and the fixtures from which we'd gained them were as follows:
Middlesbrough (a) 0-0
Sunderland (h) 1-0
Spurs (a) 0-0
Man Utd (h) 0-0
Birmingham (a) 2-2
Chelsea (h) 1-4
Blackburn (h) 1-0
Fulham (a) 0-2
West Ham (h) 1-0
This time around, we're sitting on 11 points from 9 games. The fixtures have been….
Sheffield Utd (a) 1-1
West Ham (h) 2-1
Everton (a) 0-3
Chelsea (a) 0-1
Newcastle (h) 2-0
Spurs (h) 3-0
Bolton (a) 0-2
Blackburn (h) 1-1
Man Utd (a) 0-2
The only common fixtures in that bunch are Blackburn & West Ham at home. 6pts last year, 4 this year though our performance in the draw against Blackburn was no worse than that seen in the win against the same opponents last year…we had the rub of the green with the sending off that time around, and as a performance it was far from impressive.
The killer for us this time around has been the away fixtures – look at them rationally. Everton, Chelsea, Bolton, Man Utd. Sheffield Utd should've been won by us, but as we all know visits to promoted sides can be particularly tricky at the season's start (Man Utd have struggled with Watford and Reading). The other games, however, are brutal. Such a run is ridiculous, and has me wondering about just how 'random' the fixture computer is – we may win these games on occasion in season's past, but when you put them together in a hideous run, you're left struggling for any sort of momentum.
If we'd beaten Everton, chances are we'd have gone into the Chelsea game with our heads held higher and finished our myriad chances, consigning them to a first home league defeat under Mourinho. As it is, we put in a valid performance, but fell short. The lack of confidence which reached its nadir at Old Trafford on Sunday began to rear its ugly head in the 2nd half of that fixture. Bolton followed – never an easy place to go, particularly when you're struggling away from home. Okay, so we'd won a couple of home fixtures but you know you've yet to register a win on the road, you know the pressure's on. We played alright up until the worst piece of officiating I've ever seen gave Bolton a free-kick, from which journeyman Gary Speed fortuitously shot them ahead. After that, heads dropped and it never looked as though it'd be our day. Against Man Utd the same happened when Scholes bundled the ball home.
There can be no doubt that our start has not been good enough, but the fact that the games we've lost with have been what I'd select as 4 of the 5 hardest away games of the season (and guess what? Our next away game completes the 5, being a trip to Arsenal!) offers me a slight positive. We've seen on multiple occasions that Rafael Benitez has what it takes to turn things around – it takes a while sometimes, but he can do it. We hadn't recovered from a half-time deficit in a league game since May 99, Gérard Houllier's first season, until we managed it against Man City in Rafa's first season. We hadn't come from a losing position at half-time in an away game since the early 90s until we did so with 10 men against Fulham, again in Benitez' first season at the helm. That, of course was nothing compared to the greatest comeback in footballing history in the final game of the aforementioned term….but I'm sure you're all terribly bored of hearing about that, so I'll move on….
….I'll move on, yes, to last season. Mediocre start from a set of fixtures we really should've taken considerably more points from. Chelsea aside, we were up against an unremarkable set of teams in general, and Man Utd at home is also a fixture we could (and should) have won, were a bit more belief evident. Rumblings of genuine discontent were heard as early as the Birmingham game, and they intesified over the following weeks, exploding after a pathetic display against Fulham. I recall people suggesting that perhaps an English assistant should be foisted upon the Spaniard so out of his depth in English league football (a laughable suggestion I've seen brought up again of late)…
I remember posters claiming that perhaps we give Benitez until the end of the season, with tough decisions needing to be made if the manager who, five months prior had led us to our 5th European Cup, hadn't overseen a considerable improvement in Premiership result-making. Plenty doubted if he'd ever adapt, and questioned whether he was genuinely an improvement over Monsiéur Houllier, or just a master of fluke who'd somehow managed to convince the world that the miserly combination two league titles in Spain & a European Cup in his first season in England were evidence enough of his worth to continue as manager of Liverpool F.C.
So, what happened to his second year at Anfield after that poor start? Did he and his shattered team crumble, did they wave the white flag and end up finishing amongst the mid-table riff raff? By season's end, had they left Sam Allardyce positively giddy with delight?
Err, no….they just did what they'd shown themselves capable of in 04-05. They came back. They recovered. They returned from a losing position in style and shot up the table, finishing the season on 82 points which – technically – made them the best Liverpool team since 1987-88. Something which may come as a potentially fatal shock to many pundits (look away now if you have any sort of health condition which may be affected by sudden emotional upheaval) is that they did this with Steven Gerrard operating from the right of midfield for the majority of the season. Which, I've no doubt means that last season didn't actually happen in Andy Gray's world, written off by the cartilage collecting scotsman as a tear in the space-time continuum.
What does this mean for this year, I hear you cry? Well, it means that Rafael Benitez has displayed time and time again that he can turn things around – that he can get his team into gear and get them playing quality, winning football. And you know what? I expect him to do it again, which is why I (boldly or stupidly, depending on your general view) stated that our chances of lifting the title are slightly better than they were this time last season. We have an easier fixture list now – that is a fact. We had a fantastic run of form last season, which came to an end at Man Utd in a match we controlled & should have won – in fact, before that game we'd started to pull away from Ferguson's men and we were being dubbed the only real challengers to Chelsea. Indeed, had we done as we should at Old Trafford, beaten Birmingham at home on the crest of a wave and then gone to Stamford Bridge (hmm….two horrible away games in a row…familiar!) in the best of shape, who knows what might've happened last season?
This time we have no such worries if we find ourselves winning home and away, week in, week out. After our trip to Arsenal (a match I do not expect us to claim an awful lot from) we don't have to concern ourselves with any sort of run coming to an end at the home of one of our big rivals (or Bolton, who ended our winning run before Man Utd inflicted defeat) – however, they have to come to us and if we're on a run of form to rival last year, coming to Anfield will be an intimidating prospect for anyone. There's a huge psychological difference in putting on a big performance to end a run at your own place and coming to the home of the form team and getting something there.
So what if we're on a roll and by the time Chelsea come to Anfield in January, the gap is down to, say, 7 points before kick-off? A home win would leave them looking considerably less comfortable than they're used to being at that stage of the season. What if Man Utd have to come to Anfield on March 3rd with us on a brilliant run and their lead over us whittled down to 3pts? They'd be feeling the pressure more than they were at Old Trafford last time around, that's for certain.
So, you know, top 2 might not be looking awfully likely at the moment, but if we should find ourselves on a run a bit like last season, we don't have quickfire visits to Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge to set us right back – White Hart Lane, while not to be underestimated, is about as hard as it's likely to get post-Arsenal. We've proven time and time again under this manager that we can turn things around – I think I've said that enough – but the point remains….it might be worth retaining a little bit of faith, because clawing back a deficit has been the rule rather than the exception under this manager when it matters most. And I got away without mentioning the FA Cup final up there, which might not have gone unnoticed….
Everyone talks rubbish in the heat of the moment – I'm guilty of myriad big-mouth howlers when I'm in a heated debate or moments after another depressing loss. I'm an absolute nightmare. But I'm bizarrely calm about our wider prospects for the season, just as I was at the same point last year. On Saturday, we play our 10th game of the season – it's at home and it's against Aston Villa. Our 10th game last season was away and it was against Aston Villa. We won that time (albeit fortuitously, with a performance which was met with one or two complaints, as they generally are…) so perhaps….perhaps….